Will the Truck Driver Shortage Continue?

Updated October 2026

Key takeaways

• The American Trucking Associations (ATA) has estimated the shortage at tens of thousands of drivers, with a peak of about 80,000 in 2021.
• A 2024 study by the National Academies for FMCSA found little economic evidence of a long-term shortage, and pointed to very high turnover in long-haul trucking instead.
• New federal enforcement in 2025 and 2026, including English language proficiency checks and limits on non-domiciled CDLs, has removed some drivers from the market.
• For an individual carrier, the practical problem is hiring and keeping qualified drivers. Faster hiring and better retention help regardless of which estimate is correct.

What the estimates say

The ATA has published driver shortage estimates for many years. Its estimate reached about 80,000 drivers in 2021 and was about 78,000 in 2022. ATA has also said the industry will need to hire roughly 1.2 million new drivers over a decade to replace retiring drivers and meet freight growth.

Not everyone agrees with the shortage framing. In 2024, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM) completed a study for FMCSA. It found that driver pay and freight rates did not behave the way economists would expect during a long-term labor shortage. It also reported that large long-distance truckload carriers averaged about 93% annual turnover from 1996 to 2023. In other words, many licensed drivers exist, but many leave long-haul jobs or move between carriers.

Both views agree on one point: long-haul carriers spend a great deal of time and money replacing drivers.

Factors that affect driver supply

Retirements. The driver workforce is older than the average U.S. workforce, and many drivers will retire in the next decade.

Age limits. Drivers must be 21 to drive across state lines. FMCSA’s Safe Driver Apprenticeship Pilot for 18 to 20 year olds ended in November 2025 after low participation. Drivers who had already finished the training received an exemption until they turn 21.

Training requirements. Since February 7, 2022, new CDL applicants must complete Entry-Level Driver Training with a provider on FMCSA’s Training Provider Registry. In December 2025, FMCSA reported it had removed nearly 3,000 providers from the registry and sent notices to about 4,500 more. See our ELDT guide.

English language proficiency enforcement. Since June 25, 2025, inspectors can place drivers out of service if they cannot meet the English proficiency standard in 49 CFR 391.11(b)(2). FreightWaves reported in August 2026 that more than 26,000 drivers had been placed out of service, and FMCSA has proposed making the enforcement standard permanent.

Non-domiciled CDLs. FMCSA’s final rule limits non-domiciled CDLs to holders of certain visas (H-2A, H-2B and E-2). Existing licenses that do not meet the new rule cannot be renewed. The rule took effect in March 2026. A federal appeals court heard a challenge on September 15, 2026 and had not ruled at the time of this update, so the rule remains in effect.

Drug and Alcohol Clearinghouse. Since November 18, 2024, states must remove commercial driving privileges from drivers with a “prohibited” status in the Clearinghouse until they complete the return-to-duty process.

Freight market conditions. When freight demand is weak, carriers hire fewer drivers and the shortage appears smaller. When demand recovers, hiring pressure returns quickly.

What this means for carriers

The market will continue to change, but these steps help in any market:

• Hire faster. Contact qualified applicants within hours. DriverFly’s AI recruiting agents contact applicants, answer their questions and schedule interviews at any hour.
• Screen consistently. Apply the same criteria to every applicant and verify English proficiency, licensing and Clearinghouse status before the driver starts. See DriverFly compliance management.
• Widen your sources. Combine job boards, referrals, your own careers page and driver networks. See how to source truck drivers.
• Reduce turnover. Every driver you keep is one you do not need to hire. See how to retain truck drivers.

Frequently asked questions

Is there really a truck driver shortage?

It depends on the definition. ATA estimates a shortage of tens of thousands of drivers. The 2024 NASEM study for FMCSA found little economic evidence of a long-term shortage and pointed to high turnover in long-haul trucking instead.

How many truck drivers does the US need?

ATA has estimated the industry needs to hire about 1.2 million new drivers over a decade, mainly to replace retiring drivers and drivers who leave the industry.

How do 2025 and 2026 rule changes affect driver supply?

English proficiency enforcement, limits on non-domiciled CDLs, Clearinghouse license downgrades and the removal of training providers from the registry have all reduced the number of drivers available to some carriers.

Sources: American Trucking Associations driver shortage reports; National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (2024); FMCSA Training Provider Registry update (December 2025); CVSA out-of-service criteria (June 25, 2025); FreightWaves (August 2026); FMCSA non-domiciled CDL final rule (2026); FMCSA Clearinghouse II (November 18, 2024).